Ontario eyes challenging labour market amid tariffs, lower population growth

TORONTO — Ontario’s deficit projection is shrinking in its fall fiscal update, but so are the province’s expectations for the labour market as U.S. tariffs are expected to continue hitting the economy.

The government projected in its spring budget that this year’s deficit would be $14.6 billion, but Ontario now expects to end the year $13.5 billion in the red.

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy’s fall economic statement tabled Thursday still has the province planning to balance the books in 2027-28.

“These trying times demand we maintain a steady fiscal hand and work to restore balance,” Bethlenfalvy said in the legislature. “They demand we protect our workers, businesses and national industries from uncertainty. They demand we build projects worthy of a nation whose economic strength is matched only by the strength of its people.”

The fiscal update contains few new investments, though the province is enhancing and expanding a manufacturing investment tax credit and adding $100 million to a fund that helps small- and medium-sized businesses diversify into new markets.

The remaining $4 billion from a $5-billion Protecting Ontario Account the government established this year to support sectors affected by U.S. tariffs has not yet been allocated, but the government said it is working on the next funding streams.

Economic headwinds in the near term are pushing the province’s expectations for real GDP growth to 0.8 and 0.9 per cent this year and next, sharply down from last year’s 1.8 per cent.

The average unemployment rate is expected to rise by nearly a full percentage point to 7.8 per cent this year. The rate is projected to decline in the following years, but is expected to still sit higher than what was projected this spring in the budget.

“Slowing economic activity and lower population growth due to changes in federal immigration policy are projected to contribute to a softening in Ontario labour market activity and easing employment growth,” the government wrote in the fiscal update.

Employment rose 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of this year but declined by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter. It is projected to slow further to 0.4 per cent next year “as economic growth continues to be impacted by ongoing trade conflicts and the effect of the associated uncertainty on investment and hiring,” the government wrote.

Ontario’s contingency fund will now sit at $4.5 billion, after a $2-billion top up through the fall economic statement, and the reserve is at $2 billion.

Through the fiscal update, the government said it is exploring some changes to pensions and rideshare rules.

Ontario is developing a legislative framework for a new pension option called a variable life benefit, through which monthly pension payments would be adjusted based on the fund’s investment performance and how many other living members are in the fund.

The province is also looking to consult on standardizing rideshare guidelines across Ontario, as rules such as application fees and driver screening requirements can vary by municipality.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2025.

Allison Jones, The Canadian Press